TBPN

A $500 Watch, a $50B IPO, and $50T in GDP

May 11, 2026

Happy Monday.

We’re live on YouTube and 𝕏.

The current thing in tech and business is the Cerebras’ upcoming IPO.

Today’s lineup

Augustus National Bank Co-Founder & CEO Ferdinand Dabitz at 11:30 AM
Match Group CEO Spencer Rascoff at 11:40 AM
Consensus Co-Founder & CEO Eric Olson at 12:05 PM
Giga Energy Co-Founder Matt Lohstroh at 12:15 PM
Nof1 Founder Jay Azhang at 12:30 PM
Astrocade Co-Founder & CEO Amir Sadeghian at 12:40 PM
Cowboy Space Founder & CEO Baiju Bhatt at 1:00 PM
Long Lake Co-Founder & CEO Alexander Taubman at 1:10 PM
Bezel Co-Founder & CEO Quaid Walker at 1:20 PM

A $500 Watch, a $50B IPO, and $50T in GDP

by John Coogan

Swatch

In order of historical importance, today we have stories about a cheap watch, a semiconductor company going public, and a high stakes meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

It looked like AI slop or some viral clickbait but it was in fact confirmed by both Swatch and Audemars Piguet that they will be launching a collab called “Royal Pop.” The watch, which will sell for somewhere between $300 and $500 looks like a Royal Oak, but carries the Swatch “Pop” vibe. Exact details haven’t been confirmed but the response has been really solid, the story clearly broke through. The business strategy here is rumored to be about patent expiration and a need to go downmarket as watch prices have skyrocketed. The Swatch partnership gives cover to a playful mass-market version of the Royal Oak, which would otherwise be very dilutive to the brand (not that this won’t be, but at least there’s a story here and precedent from the MoonSwatch). The expectation is crazy long lines, sold out inventory, and instant resale chaos.

Cerebras is ripping. The company is increasing both the size and price of its IPO because demand for the stock is surging. No surprises given everything going on in semiconductors broadly. Also, I’ve used Codex Spark on Cerebras chips and the speedup is very real and very clearly valuable. Years ago there was a bunch of FUD around “what if something comes after the Transformer” but nothing did and then demand started 10xing every few months, so very clear business story. Ben Thompson dove into The Inference Shift today. Cerebras is raising $4.8B at the top end, which implies a valuation of $34.4B, but based on reporting that the offering is 20x oversubscribed, I don’t see how it doesn’t wind up north of $50B pretty quickly (not financial advice).

$50 trillion of global GDP will be in a single conference room in Beijing this week when Trump meets with Xi Jinping to discuss the U.S./Israel conflict with Iran. The tech industry will be hoping for a peaceful resolution to the conflict, but also any indications around the AI supply chain. Commentary on GPU restrictions will likely be scarce as so much of the focus is on Iran. Recent backstory there is as follows:

Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to a U.S. peace proposal.
Oil prices have climbed amid fears of prolonged disruption through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil flows.
The summit is still expected to focus heavily on trade deals, specifically Chinese purchases of American agriculture, energy, aerospace products, and related investment mechanisms.

Chevron’s Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth had some very dour quotes: “We will start to see physical shortages. Demand needs to move to meet supply. Economies are going to have to slow,” and “The overall effect of the Hormuz closure is potentially as big as in the ⁠1970s.” Is that good?

Headlines

Cerebras Upsizes IPO to $4.8b After 20X Demand

Stratechery: The Inference Shift

The Guardian: Trump heads to China this week to meet Xi as Iran war and trade disputes loom over summit

WSJ: Xi’s China: Dazzling Technology, Military Muscle—and an Economic Mess

WSJ: Iran War Hangs Over China Summit

“Introducing Audemars Piguet x Swatch, a disruptive collaboration that fuses joyful boldness and positive provocation with the art of haute horlogerie.”

The Athletic: “Following complaints from drivers, Formula 1 engines will be altered for the 2027 season to reduce the reliance on electrical energy in racing, the FIA announced.”

OpenAI launches the OpenAI Deployment Company to help businesses build around intelligence

➞ OpenAI to Buy Consulting Firm for JV With Private Equity

TechCrunch: Fintech startup Parker files for bankruptcy

➞ Parker founder posts about filing for Chapter 7