TBPN

Leopold: Very Much Still in It

July 31, 2026

Happy Friday.

We’re live on YouTube and 𝕏.

The current thing in tech and business is still the Situational Awareness blowup.

Today’s Lineup

Numerai Founder Richard Craib at 11:30 AM
Founders Fund Partner Trae Stephens at 12:00 PM
BRINC Founder & CEO Blake Resnick at 12:35 PM

Run of Show

Leopold: Very Much Still in It

After the chaotic sale of the Situational Awareness public equity book to Citadel yesterday, it wasn’t looking good for Leopold Aschenbrenner, but today things are looking much much better. According to a letter sent to LPs, the fund survived the 67% drawdown and is still up 80% year to date. Going aggressively long the AI trade was very much the pitch from the beginning of Situational Awareness, and the core thesis seems completely intact. The AI buildout is continuing along trend lines, model progress is advancing as well, lab revenues continue to balloon, but the market is not a smooth trend line and Leopold called out short sellers (“adverse trading in names associated with us” to quote him).

There’s still a ton that needs to happen in order to build back and actually “fight another day” but Leopold clarified that the fund is still very much still in business. “The fund was not shut down, liquidated, or transformed into a private-only fund.” What does the next iteration of Situational Awareness look like? Less leverage? More diversification? We’re going to find out in a couple of quarters when the 13Fs start dropping.

What a story. Excited for the next chapter. — John

Clip Spotlight: Martin Shkreli on the Situational Awareness blowup

Martin Shkreli says funds were already shorting Situational Awareness stocks as early as Monday in anticipation of Leopold getting liquidated, which only accelerated the collapse.

“Some players were already positioning on Monday and Tuesday, looking to shoot against the fund.”

“That’s when you know somebody has to liquidate, and the best thing for you to do — unfortunately, sadly Darwinian — is to go sell all the positions you have in common and go start shorting everything they have. And it accelerates the downfall.”

“This is a very common practice when these things happen. Not something I would do. But I know a wide number of funds that were shorting all these stocks, hoping to cause a panic and a crash.”

Headlines

Leopold Aschenbrenner’s letter to LPs

WSJ: Situational Awareness Down 67% in July in AI Stock Rout

FT: Leopold Aschenbrenner vows to ‘fight another day’ after fund plunges 67% in July

WSJ: Google’s AI Spending Spree Has Investors Nervous

WSJ: Amazon Shares Jump as Cloud Sales—and Spending—Accelerate

WSJ: Microsoft Posts Biggest One-Day Market-Cap Gain for Any U.S. Company

CNBC: U.S. lawmakers request information from DoorDash on use of Chinese AI models

Bloomberg: Kevin Warsh’s Approach to Fed Policy Is Deeply Flawed

WSJ: The Rise of Million-Dollar Companies With Just One Employee

Bloomberg: DeepSeek Is Developing Massive AI Data Center in Inner Mongolia

WSJ: Tesla Weighs Sale of China Business to Pave Way for Potential SpaceX Merger